In 2013 Chinese goods trade to GDP topped the global
Release date：2015-03-10 10:47 Views：276
Like a white hot rowing race. By the end of 2012 as "a poor" bite USA, was successively; now, China has been leading the latter"half a boat body" in the scale of trade in goods, is almost certain to become the first big global trade in goods in 2013.
"First Financial Daily" according to the latest data released by the China respectively calculated to calculate, 2013, with all thetraffic bore, China cargo import and export value beyond America corresponding gross, several to be a foregone conclusion.But at the same time, to achieve the 2013 set at the beginning of the total value of trade "the eight" target, there is still pressure.
Trade experts told this newspaper that, although this beyond the symbolic significance, but Chinese goods trade big but highlights the service trade and weak. Structural problems overall trade imbalance with trade in goods the existence of their own, so that Chinese still difficult to trade power.
Super beauty no suspense and eight pressure
The government is scheduled for release next week Chinese 2013 annual trade in goods import and export value. USA Ministry of Commerce will also announced its 2013 annual trade statistics in February 11th. This according to the published USA 2008 toeleven the first ten months of 2013 years ago goods trade data and China 2013 trade data, according to the WTO adopted ininternational trade statistics caliber calculated, even if the China 2013 total imports and exports in December year-on-year growth rate to zero, the annual import and export value will reach $4.14; and America 2013 full year gross to trade in goodsand China flat, the 11 December, goods trade growth must reach 37.5% miracle, this is a "mission impossible".
From nearly five years of data, both import and export development trend is similar: in 2009, affected by the financial crisissignificantly decreased; 2010, 2011 and 2012 rapid recovery; although the slowdown in growth but. However, since 2010, Chinarecovery is stronger than the America.
According to China customs statistics, 2013 November, China (cargo) import and export value totaled 3.77 trillion, which in November import and export value for $0.37. Therefore, even if a very conservative assumptions in 2013 December Chinaimport and export value of zero growth, still maintain 0.37 trillion in 2013, Chinese annual accumulated import and export valuewill reach $4.14. From 2008 to 2012, the import and export of goods China December GDP year-on-year growth rate of -11.1%,32.7%, 21.4%, 12.6% and 10.2%. In 2008 December as the financial crisis led to the abnormal case of negative growth.
The National Census Bureau under the Ministry of Commerce (Bureau American of the Census) released data show, ten months of 2013 years ago, gross trade America goods totaled 3.26 trillion. In other words, if America 2013 full year gross goods tradeto reach $4.14 in 2013, November, December a total of completed $0.88. In fact, before 2013 ten months on a single maximum is only $0.20 in October. As from 2012, year-on-year growth rate, November December America trade in goods only $0.64, the last two months of 2013 to $0.88, equivalent to an increase of 37.5%. In fact, before 2013 ten months USA trade in goods year-on-year growth rate of only 0.73%, in recent years 11, 12 two months, the highest growth rate never exceeded 15%.
Early last year, the worldwide exclusive coverage "Chinese import and export value or beyond America into the worlds first".America clearance data calculated based on this report, the year 2012 Chinese goods import and export value may be beyondUSA, become the first in the world. But because import data of the statistical caliber is slightly lower than the application of WTOs adoption of IMTS diameter of the result, so from the higher caliber, 2012 Chinese import and export of goods value or to "an oar slightly worse than USA difference".
China foreign economic and Trade Statistics Institute Vice President Jia Huaiqin said: "according to the analysis of a comparable,Chinese trade volume in 2012 only $15000000000 less than American, this difference is only slightly higher than that China daily average turnover -- $11000000000. That is to say, as long as have more than one and a half Chinese trade, can be more thanAmerican." He said, "in 2013, if there are no major fluctuations, Chinese trade volume will exceed USA."
Although gross super beauty has no suspense, but can be completed in early 2013 set the growth of trade "the eight" target is still uncertain.
In 2012 Chinese annual import and export value of $3.87, the year 2013 to 8% growth, throughout the year should reach $4.18,also means that the December need to complete 0.41 trillion or 10.8% year-on-year growth. In November year-on-year growth of 9.3%, in November before the cumulative year-on-year growth of 7.7%, "the eight" requirement in December appeared "tail"phenomenon can be achieved, there are certain pressure.
Service trade weakness highlighted
Industry experts interviewed generally agreed that, although has the positive symbolic significance beyond this, but the structure and the distribution of profits China weakness decided, from "trade power" there is still a considerable gap.
The main differences include the commodity structure, occupy the position of international trade rules, the right of discourse invalue chain development. But the most intuitionistic data and the core of the problem is reflected in the field of trade in service.
Has been the domestic concerns of the import and export value, in fact just the data for trade in goods. In America Ministry of Commerce announced two months trade data at once, including trade in goods, trade in services also include.
The statistics on trade in services is relatively backward, Chinese has not full caliber trade statistics generally implemented in Europe and america. Although